That assumes that the schedule reshuffling that we’ve seen, that mostly pushes the summer movie season back from starting in May to getting underway in mid-July, doesn’t need to be reshuffled again, and that movie theater attendance is something resembling normal as soon as people are able to return to theaters again.
That’s a 40% drop year-over-year, and that is pretty close to a best case scenario.
Obviously, if things get delayed even further, or if people don’t return when theaters open, that’s only going to mean a bigger hit to the box office bottom line.