That has happened in the past, where backlash against a presumed “Winner” settled in, prompting Academy voters to push their weight behind another film.
There’s still a LOT of time to go, with a few more shoes to drop before this competition is squared away.
To that end, recent wins for Damien Chazelle’s La La Land and Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight from the top critics’ groups in New York and Los Angeles helped propel those movies into Frontrunner categories in several top races.
As was pointed out, Jenkins has claimed a Best Director trophy from pretty much every group that has tried to hand one out, including the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the National Board of Review.