Statistics peg Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water as the likeliest Best Picture winner at this year’s Oscars.
The Best Picture winner is determined by a preferential ballot, which means sometimes a film with a sizable amount of second and third-place votes ends up the victor.
Additionally, McDonagh’s Best Director snub was cited, as it’s extremely rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Directing nod.
The drama was the only film in that field to earn a Best Picture nomination, indicating it has the most support from the voters.