The best picture winner at the Academy Awards has always first been nominated for best ensemble by the SAG Awards except in 1996, when Braveheart won Best Picture, and last year, when Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water overcame the SAG omission to win Best Picture.
The SAG Awards, which are attributed by members of the Screen Actors Guild‐American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) are considered to be one of the most reliable predictors of the Oscars race, though a SAG win doesn’t always translate to an Academy win.
In the last decade the SAG ensemble winner has gone on to win best picture at the Academy Awards half of the time.
While the SAG Awards are one of the most reliable bellwethers of the Academy Awards, several of this year’s top Oscar contenders failed to land a best ensemble nomination.