Then there’s the fact that Tenet is starting to promote again while Mulan has not been avidly promoting.
I can’t imagine there’s not at least some feeling at Disney that it would be cool for Mulan to be the big release pushing people into theaters.
All of this may point to a release date change.
However, there’s also risk inherent with being first, there’s the fact that Mulan, unlike Tenet, has not been pushing to be first, plus the need for Mulan to do well globally can’t be understated either.